The roots of terrorism were sown long in the past and the branches will dominate our future.
Tribalism is intimately connected with terrorism: when one mass of people identify only with themselves and their values, and see others as lesser beings, then the ground is set for permanent conflict.
Most wars for the last twenty years have been wars inside nations rather than between them: wars over culture and ideology, conflicts that affect tribal groups and loyalties rather than national boundaries and identity, where one or both sides often resort to terrorism. Expect that pattern to continue regardless of the response the US and other countries make to recent events, and the inevitable counter-reactions that are provoked.
The lesson of history shows that counter terrorism requires more than military action and intelligence gathering.
It's incorrect to say that Islamic Fundamentalism is the root of the global terrorism threat. The truth is that the forces and causes of terrorism are far more diverse. The fact is that there are hundreds of small to large groups today who use random attacks on civilian and commercial targets as a means of getting attention and winning support (they hope). Take the patterns of terrorism in Chechnya, Kosovo, Bosnia, Northern Ireland, the Basque separatists and more recent rioting in anti-globalisation protests. It's just the start.
If terrorism thrives on tribalism, then a sense of injustice is what feeds tribalism. When a group feels they are marginalised, their power destroyed, their people victimised, their voices unheard, then violent protests are sure to follow.
The trouble is that there has never been a time in human history when so many millions have felt "just" grievances. One such issue is the growing gulf between the rich and the poor, the destitute and the power-players. Another is the claim by the United Nations that sanctions against Iraq have resulted in the deaths of over 500,000 children. Another is the desperate situation of millions of near-starving people in
Africa and Asia who see their super-rich global villagers on CNN every day.
Attacks and raids on the Taliban in Afghanistan, biological warfare retaliation by terrorists (anthrax at first) that may or may not be associated with Osama Bin Laden, other terrorist acts - it is easy to set up a cycle of low grade conflict as we have seen in many parts of the world. These cycles of terrorism can fuel acts of violence for generations and are difficult to stop.
The new world order will have to address all these fundamental global challenges, as well as issues of security.
In the meantime, expect ethics and values to become ever more important to every company, large corporation, organization, politician and people group.
Never has it been more important for the whole of humanity together to agree how we can build a better kind of world.
The Truth about the Iraq War
Why the War with Iraq is a sign of a new world order and what it all means for the future of the Middle East, America, Europe, United Nations and the coalition against terror
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Every country is threatened by future terrorism: watch out for attacks on United Kingdom, United States, Canada, Australia, Singapore, France, Mexico, Malaysia, Netherlands, Belgium, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Italy, Germany, India, South Africa, Poland, Brazil, New Zealand, Greece, Switzerland, Finland, Romania, Austria, Ireland, Hong Kong, Sweden, Trinidad and Tobago, Portugal, Spain, Denmark, United Arab Emirates, Thailand, Croatia (Hrvatska), Israel, Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mauritius, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, Cyprus, Slovenia, Norway, Hungary, Argentina, Lebanon, Taiwan, Russian Federation and China - to name just a few.
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